A Morgan Stanley analyst predicts lower-cost iPhones may be available from Apple as soon as June. It also sees the smartphone fueling more Apple growth that could push the stock price as high as $435 by 2012.
Katy Huberty, in a research note first reported in Fortune magazine, also said iPad sales could be as high as six million when the tablet computer is unleashed this spring. That’s higher than Wall Street estimates of between three million and four million.
Letting new wireless carriers sell iPhones at current prices would bump the device’s already soaring share of the global handset market from the current four percent to 10 percent, Huberty said. In that scenario, Apple’s stock price could soar up to $435.
Cheaper iPhones with lower-cost service plans could boost the market share even higher, to 15 percent, which would mean a bump to $358 a share. The lower retail cost would be subsidized by carriers paying $200 of the iPhone cost.
In another scenario, an unlocked iPhone could grab a staggering 33 percent of the handset market, which would translate to a $325 stock price.
Morgan Stanley’s research shows that hardware cost is the biggest barrier to iPhone ownership. Huberty did not speculate on the price of any cheaper phones.
Huberty’s projection of cheaper iPhones mentions “new functionality, potentially including gesture-based technology.” Not currently in widespread use, such technology involves recognition of hand or finger movements without direct contact with the device, as Tom Cruise did with electronic devices in the sci-fi film Minority Report.
Such technology could add even more value to the iPhone, but Kirk Parsons, a senior telecommunications analyst at JD Power and Associates, said, “If it’s going to be a popular feature, it must be easy to use and intuitive enough to understand.”
Our attempt to interview Huberty about her…
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